Santos and FARC begin peace talks in Oslo

Humberto de la Calle and Co.

Colombia peace negotiations have begun in Oslo today. Humberto de la Calle, represents the Colombian government, which arrived to Oslo yesterday with “hope...moderate optimism”. On the side of the FARC is Luciano Marín Arango, alias Ivan Márquez.  Other FARC representatives include Simon Trinidad, who is currently serving a 60 year sentence for kidnapping in the U.S., and Dutch national Tanja Nijmeijer, who joined in 2000 and is wanted by both the U.S. and the EU.

 After 50 years of civil war, this is the fourth time since 1980 that peace negotiations have been tried. However, the difference between these negotiations is the focus on content, as opposed to simply territorial control and/or ceasefire. Luis Eduardo Garzón, a former communist and now Colombia’s minister of social dialogue, who is involved in the peace process says “I am optimistic now because ... this president has set a concrete agenda,”. The five issues on the agenda in Oslo are listed:

1) rural and land development
2) guarantees for political participation
3) drug trafficking
4) the rights of the victims
5) end of the armed conflict

Negotiations are coming at a moment when the FARC has found itself in the defensive in the last decade, especially since the implementation of “Plan Colombia”. This blog has always argued that “Plan Colombia” is a military free trade agreement. In other words, doing war with the FARC is a business doctrine; and “Plan Colombia” was the privatization of that business to the U.S. In the last 12 years since its inception, the FARC have gone from an 18,000 strong unit that controlled a third of the country, to numbering at 8,000 and controlling only marginal sections of the Colombian jungle and small towns near the border of Ecuador and Venezuela respectively. The deaths of top FARC leaders including Raul Reyes in 2008, Manuel Marulanda in 2008 (heart attack), Mono Jojoy in 2010, and Alfonso Cano in 2011, has severely crippled the old guard leadership of the FARC.

Simon Trinidad

In the economic sphere, Colombia has found itself desperately trying to become the second C of the “BRIC” nations. Colombia’s GDP expanded 4.9% inthe second quarter of 2012, partially led by the booming oil and coal industry, whose profits have risen on the fact that Colombians pay 8,000 pesos a gallon ($4).  Unemployment hovers at 10%, one of the highest in South America. New tax codes discussed in congress this week is attempting to tackle inequality. The plan is to exempt the lowest of income earners from paying income taxes. Colombia, compared to other Latin American nations, is one of the most unequal. Colombia's macroeconomic solution has been to continue opening its door to international investment, specifically; President Juan Manuel Santos has been keen to bringing in Chinese investments (infrastructure), much to the concern of the U.S. Obviously, solving the civil war puzzle would be a huge boosts to investments and international credit ratings.

But not all sections of the ruling elite of Colombia are in agreement with the peace process. Ex-president Alvaro Uribe has spoken out against the Santos administration for "dealing with terrorists". Meanwhile media outlets like RCN and Caracol have spoken on the peace negotiations in a belittling demeanor. This should come as no surprise, there is a split in the ruling class of Colombia on which way forward for capital and economic development. One section sees peace with the guerrillas and a diversification of the economy, i.e. a deeper relationship with China and Brasil, as a top priority. The other section, personified by Uribe and Co. are the hardliners who see the economic, political and social advantage of being at "war with terrorists" and who primarily see the U.S. as their main trading partner. 

Late 2011, students protest "education reform" in Bogota.

The outcome of the negotiations at Oslo, assisted by Cuba, Venezuela and Chile, will prove to be a deciding factory on President Santos' legacy. It will also dictate on how millions of Colombians will be able to live their lives. Peace will help rebuild a much needed left in Colombia. In a country where anything left-of-center is attacked as "chavista", getting rid of the bogey man "FARC", is crucial in the building of new left, a left that to date has been led by political leaders like Piedad Cordoba, Antonio Navarro and Gustavo Petro and by student activists in Bogota and Cali, who last year led militant marches confronting Santos' attempt at further privatizing education. 

Chavez wins yet again

Hugo Chavez wins yet again, deepening his quest for "Socialism in the 21st century". His opponent, former oligarch, turned leftt-centrist, Henrique Capriles, was forced to admit the election was free and fare, something most Venezuelan gusanos couldn't admit. Venezuela could teach the world on how to improve bourgeois democracy with their e-voting system. Chavez' win doesn't mean an automatic deepening of the socialist project, the danger is that he remains the only leader of the PSUV. Recognizable leaders need to be created, however this doesn't come out of thin air, but the PSUV can do more to create that beginning layer of cadre. More troublesome is the bureaucracy formed around his government. The emphasis needs to be on grassroots activism in the working poor and self involvement of ordinary Venezuelan on the day-to-day business of running Venezuela, starting with organizing basic needs in the neighborhood, active involvement in administrating healthcare, and more active union and worker participation in key industries. Orlando Chirino, presidential candidate for the Partido Socialismo y Libertad, runs on that platform. Nonetheless, in a country that has every right to be wary of foreign intervention we must view a victory for Hugo Chavez as a rightful defeat for  U.S. imperialism, the Venezuelan comprador class and the newly emerging Venezuelan gusano class in the states. The future leaders of the Venezuelan socialist project needs to be formed, from the bottom up.